Paul Nuttall and Steven Woolfe are the firm favourites vying for the job after Nigel Farage surprised everyone by resigning on Monday , saying: "I've taken the country back, now I want my life back. So who are these two new contenders to head one of Britain's most controversial political parties? I also keep abreast of what is going on out there through the work of the excellent UKIP staff. Tax seems to be Wolfe's big concern: he wants everyone to pay less of it. He made this point to the Telegraph two years ago , saying that Britain's middle class is "paying more on their train fares, more on their gas and energy bills and they have also been impacted by child benefit.
And the question they ask themselves - is when I am going to work, how much more money is going to the government. How long it will take UKIP to decide on its new leader is anyone's guess, but with Labour's current crisis and increased questions over when triggering Article 50 - the two-year notice period a country gives to leave the EU - will happen, the UK's main anti-EU party looks like it will be sticking around for a while yet. Times Internet Limited. All rights reserved. For reprint rights.
Times Syndication Service. Since the referendum in September, the prediction has risen by five seats. Meanwhile Labour is forecast seats and the Conservatives , which would mean that Labour would need to form a coalition with the Lib Dems to secure a majority. As for the Greens, they are an even bet to win a seat. Some way behind are Theresa May and Yvette Cooper.
Finally on the Europe question, the bookies seem to be predicting that the move towards UKIP and pulling out of the EU is a short-term blip. What does all this tell us? Labour is still in front despite all the anti-Miliband coverage. The Lib Dem collapse and the UKIP surge may be less marked than some people have been predicting, but the prediction of an increase for SNP seems on-track with bookies, with a doubling of seats predicted since the referendum.
Whether this feels reassuring or disappointing, watch this space to see how the figures change in the months ahead. The bookies make their money on providing attractive odds, but are continually appraising a range of indicators. Attraction explained: The science of how we form relationships — Cambridge, Cambridgeshire. Edition: Available editions United Kingdom. Become an author Sign up as a reader Sign in. Bill Buchanan , Edinburgh Napier University. Nigel for PM? Chris Radburn.
It's odds-on they fail to send any new member to the Commons and the fact that the bookies haven't yet chalked up prices beyond a single seat indicates the party are yet to capture the imagination of political punters. Under Over In their heyday, you'd struggle to find a bookie on either side of the border who'd think it even worthwhile to open a book on which party will come out on top in terms of Westminster seats won north of the border.
While the SNP are still warm favourites to win on home turf, this year's betting line suggests, with a whiff of independence in the air once more, they'll improve on the 35 won last time, but fall short of the record 56 landed at their peak in The SNP playing kingmaker in the formation of the next government is also something worth thinking about, with a straight pact with Labour deemed the most likely. The SNP playing kingmaker in the formation of the next government is also something worth thinking about.
Under 4. It's business as usual for Plaid Cymru in Wales, with the market pointing towards them making no further advances on the four seats won in The Greens look on course for a strong performance in terms of overall vote number, but it'll all be in vain in terms of them making any inroads in Westminster beyond their Brighton Pavilion fiefdom.
The fact that they're rank outsiders in the neighbouring south coast constituency of Brighton Kemptown demonstrates the struggle they'll face to pick up another MP anywhere else in the country, but unlike some of their rivals, at least their continued presence in SW1 looks assured.
There are just over two weeks until the country goes to the polls in an election that, according to our preliminary assessment, contains two clear outcomes neither of which many would feel comfortable staking the family silverware on. Political betting is booming and the interest shown by punters at the most granular levels means bookmakers and betting platforms need to stay on their toes. Often a sudden move in constituency prices is a signal for a story, gaffe or critical piece of polling about to break where those on the ground remain one step ahead of the oddsmakers.
Those with the keenest interest should take note of the odds offered for the key constituencies and keep their ears close to the ground in a bid to profit — after all, a number cruncher based in London , Gibraltar or even further afield would find it impossible to stay abreast of daily doorstep comings and goings in every constituency, even though they need to offer a market on each one. We recommend keeping an eye on the following constituencies where betting activity suggests punters are sniffing out a changing of the guard, while our election betting expert has also taken stock of how each party leader will perform on home turf.
Party leaders first Boris Johnson has the smallest constituency majority of a prime minister since and in the election the PM's majority was halved to roughly 5, to become one of the most high-profile races in this election.
Although it would be one of the stories of the campaign if he were to suffer a defeat, the betting suggests it might not be as much of an upset as some sections of the media would think. De Piero won by just votes from the Tories in , but Brexit is the main issue here in this 69 per cent leave voting seat that Boris has in his crosshairs.
The marginal seat of Finchley And Golders Green is poised on a knife edge, but has a lot more significance beyond the numbers. Margaret Thatcher's old stomping ground was traditionally a Labour-Tory swing seat, but now the Lib Dems' new star Luciana Berger is a serious disrupter. This seat has been dominated by the situation surrounding the highly respected former attorney general Dominic Grieve, who lost the Tory whip over his remain stance.
The Liberal Democrats have stepped aside in favour of Grieve, who is standing as an Independent. This is crucial because this leafy, affluent Buckinghamshire seat will test the strength of anti-Brexit feeling among traditional, moderate Conservatives. Should the Tories lose seats like this, the bottom could be taken out from under them in their quest for their majority and the betting suggests Grieve is making ground on his old employers fast.
Strident Brexiteer Iain Duncan Smith has held the seat for a whopping 27 years — but younger, more ethnically diverse remain voters could be about to change that as part of a big drive to unseat the former Tory leader. At the last election, the SNP beat the Liberal Democrats by only two votes, making this the single most marginal constituency in the UK, so it's unsurprising it's been such a focal point of the betting this time around, where in theory one bettor who matched their ballot slip to their betting slip would have affected the outcome by 50 per cent.
Taking in the famous golf resort of St Andrews, it has become a struggle between the Liberal Democrats and the SNP with the Conservatives throwing their hats into the ring for good measure too. In the run-up to the Scottish referendum I wrote several pieces for The Conversation analysing the betting patterns on Yes and No. We now know that the bookies successfully predicted the result and gave useful pointers to geographical voting at an earlier stage than many of the analysts.
Will the same be true of the UK election? This is the first of several articles that will monitor how the odds develop as we get nearer to May 7. There is not much between Labour and Conservative at this point. One of the key questions is whether there will be a majority. Those with money to burn might like to mull the more distant possibilities.
Far more lively have been the UKIP odds. One of the big questions for Labour is whether its Scottish vote holds up. There has been much talk that it will collapse on the back of their support for the No vote in the referendum as working class voters desert them for partnering with the Tories. The bookies are currently predicting between 13 and 14 seats for SNP — it currently has six.
As recently as April they were predicting just one or two gains. Since the referendum in September, the prediction has risen by five seats. Meanwhile Labour is forecast seats and the Conservatives , which would mean that Labour would need to form a coalition with the Lib Dems to secure a majority. As for the Greens, they are an even bet to win a seat. Some way behind are Theresa May and Yvette Cooper.
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|Localbitcoins wallet safe||The market never sleeps. Times Internet Limited. Whatever your political persuasion, it's hard to argue against the impact the Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage has had on the bigger picture, but in terms betfred sports betting the attempt to be taken seriously as a force in Westminster, the odds tell their own story. Pushing the BoE to the limit: what a no-deal Brexit will mean for UK exchange and interest rates September 18th, 1. Take Machine Learning from University of Wash Bill Buchanan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.|
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