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Brady has 12 TDs and one interception in the fourth quarter this season. Turnover ratio. The Chiefs and Buccaneers have near-mirror turnover ratios on the season. The Chiefs had just two games with multiple turnovers all season. In the regular-season matchup, Tampa Bay committed two turnovers while Kansas City had one.
In a game like this, that one turnover can account for the one-score difference in the end. Kansas City's attack is different. The Chiefs are built to take the early lead, and they will with a pair of first-half TD passes from Mahomes. Brady will lead a second-half comeback again.
Kansas City presents too many problems from Tampa Bay and will play with the lead for most of the game. American Football. Buccaneers 6h ago. Buccaneers 9h ago. Buccaneers 10h ago. American Football 14h ago. This will be the eighth straight playoff game Mahomes is favored in.
That will break a tie with Kurt Warner for the most consecutive playoff games favored in to begin a career in the Super Bowl era. Coin toss: Heads 25, tails 29 Tampa Bay closed as a 4-point underdog in its only other Super Bowl appearance It won outright. If the Bucs close as an underdog, they will look to join the Giants 3 , Raiders 2 , Broncos 2 and Washington 2 as the only teams to win multiple Super Bowls as an underdog. Mahomes has the fourth-highest cover percentage Brady is ATS in his career as an underdog and outright as an underdog, both best in the Super Bowl era Since , the under is in Brady starts with a total in the 50s since Only the Ravens went on to win it all.
He was ATS with Philadelphia in that situation. Since , Brady has covered all five games with at least 13 days between games, including the Week 14 game this season. The spread has not come into play in the last 11 Super Bowls. Winners are ATS. The last team to win but not cover was Pittsburgh in over Arizona -7, won by 4. Three of the last four won the game.
Kansas City is ATS in its last 10 games, though it did cover in its last game. Tampa Bay has covered the last four times it has been an underdog. The Buccaneers have covered each of the last three meetings, including their Week 12 meeting this season. In that game, Kansas City was a 3. Now Kansas City is a 3-point favorite in that building, though it is technically a neutral site.
Skip to navigation. Notable Super Bowl betting trends. Kansas City Chiefs. Notable Bets: Mahomes' injury throws oddsmakers for a loop. Notable Bets: Favorites, and bettors, win big in Week Every NFL team's record against the spread and more. Notable Bets: Receiverless Browns let down betting public. Notable Bets: A Jets bet you won't believe. Notable Bets: NFL underdogs taking toll on betting public. Notable Bets: Jets spoil biggest win of season for bookmakers. Notable Bets: The remaking of the Saints-Broncos point spread.
Betting underdogs have cashed in 9 of the last 13 Super Bowl match-ups and are ATS over the last 25 years. Though large focus can be lost with the spread, the major focus should be simply picking the winner of the big game. Only six times in the Super Bowl era has the betting favorite won the game and failed to cover the spread. Therefore, typically the winner of the "side" is simply the team that pulls out the win, which will likely be the case for Super Bowl LV based on the mere 3 point spread.
Lost in the hype and anticipation is the fact this Super Bowl pairing is a week 12 rematch from earlier this year. The Chiefs visited Tampa back in week 12 and pulled out a hard-fought victory. Mahomes threw for a season-high yards with three touchdowns, but the Buccaneers rallied in the closing minutes closing the lead to just 3 points before Kansas City was able to run out the clock in the final 4 minutes.
Obviously, we can't place current expectations based on prior results, but I do think that week 12 match-up proves that the Buccaneers are going to be a difficult out for America's new dynasty team. Additionally, I would argue that the Buccaneers defense is playing much better at this point in the season, which was on full display in the NFC Championship Game when they held the Packers to just 26 points despite a high-tempo game pace.
The Buccaneers defensive line is the X factor in this match-up where both offenses should have the advantage based on each offense's tremendous talent. However, the Buccaneers defensive front has proven to be disruptive this postseason and even back in that week 12 match-up against the Chiefs. The problem Tampa Bay had in week 12 is when they created pressure, Mahomes was able to escape the pocket and consistently find WR Tyreek Hill running free due to broken down coverage.
I expect Tampa Bay will have consistent over the top help on Hill throughout this game to prevent those huge plays down the field. I don't expect Hill to be shut-down by any stretch of the imagination, but I do expect the Buccaneers to put a heavy focus on preventing the big plays.
Keep in mind, Mahomes threw for yards in the 1st meeting and only scored 27 points, which proves Tampa Bay's defense will be a difficult challenge. If the Buccaneers limit the big plays, as I expect, this game-script will turn into a strong scenario for the Buccaneers offense. Despite losing some arm strength in the latter years of his career, Brady is still a mastermind at managing the game and situations.
Furthermore, Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette give the Buccaneers the opportunity to ride the ground game and intermediate passing game to keep the Chiefs off the field. If the Buccaneers execute and limit the turnovers, I think this is a favorable betting scenario where sharp money will prevail more times than not.
If you want to take the Buccaneers and the money line, we have even more value in betting with the underdog. I know it's not the popular pick for most fans, but I really think this is a strong match-up for Tampa Bay as long as they limit the mistakes. Overall, favorites are The last two Super Bowls went under the total. There have been 10 overs and 10 unders in the last 20 Super Bowls, and it's overall no total for Super Bowl I.
AFC teams have won and covered five of the last six Super Bowls. The favored team is straight up in the 54 Super Bowls. A total of 57 would be the second-highest closing Super Bowl total ever. He has been an underdog once, in his first Super Bowl vs. This will be the first time Brady is an underdog in three straight starts since and the first time in a single season since It will snap Brady's game streak without being an underdog in three consecutive starts. The next longest streak in the Super Bowl era is by Aaron Rodgers active streak.
This will be the eighth straight playoff game Mahomes is favored in. That will break a tie with Kurt Warner for the most consecutive playoff games favored in to begin a career in the Super Bowl era. Coin toss: Heads 25, tails 29 Tampa Bay closed as a 4-point underdog in its only other Super Bowl appearance It won outright. If the Bucs close as an underdog, they will look to join the Giants 3 , Raiders 2 , Broncos 2 and Washington 2 as the only teams to win multiple Super Bowls as an underdog.
Mahomes has the fourth-highest cover percentage Brady is ATS in his career as an underdog and outright as an underdog, both best in the Super Bowl era Since , the under is in Brady starts with a total in the 50s since Only the Ravens went on to win it all. He was ATS with Philadelphia in that situation. Since , Brady has covered all five games with at least 13 days between games, including the Week 14 game this season.
The spread has not come into play in the last 11 Super Bowls. Winners are ATS. The last team to win but not cover was Pittsburgh in over Arizona -7, won by 4. Three of the last four won the game. Kansas City is ATS in its last 10 games, though it did cover in its last game. Tampa Bay has covered the last four times it has been an underdog. The Buccaneers have covered each of the last three meetings, including their Week 12 meeting this season.
In that game, Kansas City was a 3. Now Kansas City is a 3-point favorite in that building, though it is technically a neutral site. Skip to navigation.
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